Shelter Island NY USA Weather Tomorrow and Today 7.21.2022 and 7.20.2022, temp currently is Fair
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W 5 mph
20 Jul 9:15 am EDT
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7 Day Shelter Island NY USA Weather Tomorrow and Today 7.21.2022 and 7.20.2022
Heat Advisory July 20, 12:00pm until July 21, 08:00pmClick here for hazard details and duration
SunnyHigh: 90 °F
Mostly ClearLow: 72 °F
Mostly Sunnythen IsolatedT-stormsHigh: 89 °F
IsolatedT-stormsLow: 72 °F
SunnyHigh: 89 °F
Mostly ClearLow: 72 °F
SunnyHigh: 89 °F
Partly CloudyLow: 73 °F
Mostly SunnyHigh: 89 °F
We hope you like this weather data for Shelter Island NY USA Weather Tomorrow and Today 7.21.2022 and 7.20.2022. Also for the rest of the week, too!
TodaySunny, with a high near 90. Heat index values as high as 96. Southwest wind around 7 mph. TonightMostly clear, with a low around 72. Southwest wind around 8 mph. ThursdayIsolated showers and thunderstorms after 2pm. Mostly sunny, with a high near 89. Heat index values as high as 98. South wind 9 to 14 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.Thursday NightIsolated showers and thunderstorms before 2am. Mostly cloudy, then gradually becoming clear, with a low around 72. Southwest wind 5 to 9 mph becoming calm after midnight. Chance of precipitation is 20%.FridaySunny, with a high near 89. Southwest wind 6 to 8 mph. Friday NightMostly clear, with a low around 72.SaturdaySunny, with a high near 89.Saturday NightPartly cloudy, with a low around 73.SundayMostly sunny, with a high near 89.Sunday NightA 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms after 8pm. Partly cloudy, with a low around 72.MondayA 40 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly sunny, with a high near 87.Monday NightA 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 70.TuesdayMostly sunny, with a high near 85.
Here’s a detailed discussion below that you might like for Shelter Island NY USA Weather Tomorrow and Today 7.21.2022 and 7.20.2022.
Area Forecast Discussion Issued by NWS Upton, NYHome | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary OffVersions: 1
FXUS61 KOKX 201313
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
913 AM EDT Wed Jul 20 2022
High pressure will be in control through tonight. A pre-frontal
trough then moves through the region on Thursday, followed by a cold
front Thursday evening. High pressure will then return Friday and
remain over the region this weekend. A frontal system may
affect the region late in the weekend into the first part of
next week. High pressure returns for the middle of the week.
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/…
Made adjustments to hourly temperatures this morning as readings
are in the upper 80s on Long Island already as of 9 am.
Otherwise, the forecast remains on track.
Weak high pressure will be in place, providing us with dry
conditions. Some CAMs still show isolated convection near our NW
zones late today into the evening, but there`s probably enough
subsidence around to keep things dry. 850mb temps are progged to
be around 20C, which would have high temperatures in the upper
90s for the urban corridor in NE NJ, and 90-95 for most other
locations. Dewpoints won`t mix out as much as they did yesterday
as dewpoints through the boundary layer will be higher this
time around, and in some cases, sea breezes will pass through.
Max heat index values will average around 100. A heat advisory
remains in effect for the entire area. Warm and muggy tonight
with lows in the 70s for most areas, with NYC and adjacent
suburbs falling only to around 80.
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/…
A pre-frontal trough moves through the forecast area during the day
on Thursday with isolated/scattered thunderstorms developing as
early as late morning. Highest threat will be in the afternoon when
the trough is shifting through and mid-level lapse rates range 6.5
to 7 C/km. At the same time, SBCAPES average 1000-2000 J/kg, and 0-
6km bulk shear ranges from 25-35 kt. Some storms therefore could be
strong to severe, with the main threat being damaging winds.
Forecast bufkit profiles show a little veering, and with CAPES 500+
J/kg in the -10 to -30C region and wet bulb zero heights 10-12kft,
large hail will be possible as well.
850mb temps increase to 20-21C on Thursday, but the max temperature
potential could be offset by potential convective debris and
rainfall as well as by higher dewpoints throughout the boundary
layer. Models still show 850mb dewpoints ranging 15-19C. Thinking
that high temperatures will be at or slightly below today`s in most
cases and surface dewpoints should be higher this time around. This
combination still keeps us well within heat advisory criteria, and
there is a chance that a few locations in NE NJ urban corridor
reaches heat indices of 105. The heat advisory for the entire
forecast area remains unchanged for Thursday.
For Friday, high pressure builds in with a drier, but not much
cooler air mass. Progged 850mb temps still average 19-20C. Highs
again mostly in the 90s across the entire area, with the potential
of heat advisories needing to be extended at least for NE NJ, NYC
and parts of LI and the Lower Hudson Valley.
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/…
Hot conditions continue through the weekend.
The hot and humid air mass will remain in place as heights climb and
ridging builds both Saturday and Sunday. 00z forecast guidance has
850mb temperatures in the low 20s(C) by Sunday, which would
translate to surface temps in the upper 90s to near 100 if it were
to verify. This would translate to an even hotter air mass over the
weekend. Conditions appear generally dry Saturday and Sunday, except
for the low chance of an isolated shower or thunderstorms north and
west of NYC.
A frontal boundary will approach from the west Sunday night and move
across the area sometime on Monday. Despite the cold frontal passage
will bring some relief, temperatures will still remain hot to start
next week. Highs will remain in the upper 80s to lower 90s Monday-
Wednesday. Stuck fairly close to the NBM guidance for this
.AVIATION /13Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/…
VFR as high pressure remains over the area today.
W/SW winds weaken to 5-10 kt with some outlying terminals
possible going light and variable early this morning. After day
break, winds may become W or WNW under 10 kt before gradually
backing to the SW late in the morning. Winds by the afternoon
become S everywhere 10-15 kt. Winds become light tonight.
Low level moisture increase late tonight for some of the far
eastern terminals. Cigs/vsbys may lower to IFR or less
especially towards KGON.
…NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty…
Timing of winds becoming southerly may be off by an hour or two.
.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY…
.Thursday…Mainly VFR. MVFR conditions possible in a chance of
showers and thunderstorms, mainly afternoon into early evening.
SW winds 10-15G20-25kt in the afternoon and evening.
.Sunday…Mainly VFR. Chance of showers and thunderstorms in the
afternoon and evening, mainly NW of NYC metro.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90
Southerly winds increase today, but gusts likely remain below 25 kt,
and on the ocean, seas average 3-4 feet. After subsiding winds
tonight, they increase again on Thursday ahead of a cold front, and
should gust up to around 25 kt on the ocean in the afternoon.
Additionally, the southerly fetch will promote seas reaching 5 ft.
With this starting late in the 3rd and with collaboration from the
surrounding offices, it was decided to hold off on issuing a SCA,
but will probably be issued later today should trends hold. SCA
conds are looking likely on the ocean for Friday as seas remain
SCA conditions remain possible at times this weekend and into
the first part of next week as a cold front approaches and moves
across the waters.
Outside minor urban and poor drainage flooding with any Thursday
afternoon/evening convection, no significant hydrologic impacts are
expected through the forecast period.
There is a moderate risk of rip currents today with a 3-4 ft swell
and 6-8 second periods.
A high risk is expected on Thursday with increasing southerly flow
between 15-20 kts and swells 5-6 ft.
CT…Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT Thursday for CTZ005>012.
NY…Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT Thursday for NYZ067>075-078>081-
NJ…Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT Thursday for NJZ002-004-006-
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