Pavilion NY USA Weather Tomorrow and Today 7.21.2022 and 7.20.2022, temp currently is Fair
More on current conditions
W 10 mph
29.80 in (1008.1 mb)
Heat Index82°F (28°C)
20 Jul 8:56 am EDT
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7 Day Pavilion NY USA Weather Tomorrow and Today 7.21.2022 and 7.20.2022
Heat Advisory July 20, 11:00am until July 20, 08:00pmClick here for hazard details and duration
HotHigh: 92 °F
ChanceT-stormsLow: 71 °F
ChanceT-storms andBreezyHigh: 81 °F
Mostly Clearthen SlightChanceShowersLow: 67 °F
ChanceT-stormsHigh: 85 °F
Mostly ClearLow: 66 °F
Mostly SunnyHigh: 89 °F
ChanceShowersLow: 68 °F
ShowersLikelyHigh: 84 °F
We hope you like this weather data for Pavilion NY USA Weather Tomorrow and Today 7.21.2022 and 7.20.2022. Also for the rest of the week, too!
TodayMostly sunny and hot, with a high near 92. Southwest wind 5 to 8 mph. TonightA chance of showers and thunderstorms after 11pm. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 71. South wind 7 to 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 40%. New rainfall amounts of less than a tenth of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms. ThursdayA chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly sunny, with a high near 81. Breezy, with a southwest wind 8 to 13 mph increasing to 16 to 21 mph in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 32 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%. New rainfall amounts of less than a tenth of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms. Thursday NightA slight chance of showers after 2am. Mostly clear, with a low around 67. Southwest wind 10 to 15 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.FridayA chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly before 2pm. Mostly sunny, with a high near 85. West wind 8 to 14 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%. New rainfall amounts of less than a tenth of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms. Friday NightMostly clear, with a low around 66.SaturdayMostly sunny, with a high near 89.Saturday NightA chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 68. Chance of precipitation is 40%.SundayShowers likely, with thunderstorms also possible after 2pm. Partly sunny, with a high near 84. Chance of precipitation is 70%.Sunday NightA chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 63. Chance of precipitation is 50%.MondayMostly sunny, with a high near 79.Monday NightPartly cloudy, with a low around 59.TuesdaySunny, with a high near 82.
Here’s a detailed discussion below that you might like for Pavilion NY USA Weather Tomorrow and Today 7.21.2022 and 7.20.2022.
Area Forecast Discussion Issued by NWS Buffalo, NYHome | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary OffVersions: 1
FXUS61 KBUF 201047
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
647 AM EDT Wed Jul 20 2022
Hot and humid today with heat indices in the mid 90s to around 100.
Showers and thunderstorms arrive tonight with a cold front. Some
of the storms over western New York could be strong this evening.
Showers and a few thunderstorms will linger Thursday before
drier weather returns for Friday and Saturday, with the warm
weather continuing into the weekend.
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/…
Hot and humid today. 850 mb temperatures climbing to near 20C
will support temperatures in the upper 80s to lower 90s, with
some readings near 95F across portions of the Genesee Valley and
western Finger Lakes. Models surface dewpoints in the upper 60s
to lower 70s, might be a touch high with some drier air aloft
helping to mix dewpoints down a bit. Nonetheless, maximum heat
indices still reaching the mid to upper 90s for areas south of
Lake Ontario with some readings possibly getting above 100F.
Ridge building into the area along with warm temperatures aloft
likely keeping the atmosphere caped from convection, although can
not completely rule out some isolated convection developing by mid
afternoon over higher terrain areas.
Better chances for convection will arrive tonight. A potent mid
level trough will slide east from the upper Great Lakes with modest
height falls and associated cold front arriving across the lower
Great Lakes by this evening or early tonight. Diurnal instability
will be waning with the arrival of these features, but the
expectation is that at least a broken area of convection will
push into the region from the west. Far western New York will
have the best chance to see more organized convection with some
limited risk for strong/severe thunderstorms with damaging winds
likely the main threat.
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/…
Thursday, the cold front will cross the region through the early
afternoon with the potential for showers and a few rumbles of
thunder. As the front tracks across the region, instability values
will increase out ahead of the front, increasing thunderstorm
potential with eastward extent. Any storms that do develop should be
below severe criteria, but heavy downpours, and gusty winds will be
possible for some of the storms east of Lake Ontario. A `Marginal
Risk` is in place for the day on Thursday from eastern Lewis County
and points east, with a `Slight Risk` for severe thunderstorms
farther to the east. With the trough axis still over the region on
Thursday, a few showers will be possible behind the passing front.
Temperatures on Thursday will be in the mid 70s to mid 80s behind
the passing cold front.
Thursday night, any lingering showers and storms will be out of the
area for the first half of the night. A weak shortwave trough
tracking across the area will bring the potential for a few showers
late Thursday night into early Friday morning, mainly south of Lake
Ontario. Lows Thursday night will be in the low to upper 60s.
Some showers expected for Friday, especially south of Lake Ontario,
and along the NY/PA line. These showers will track across the area
as a shortwave trough develops over the area. Some model guidance
spread still with respect to location and timing of shower
development; with some guidance developing over and just west of the
Buffalo area, and other guidance develops showers more over the
Finger Lakes due to slower shortwave trough development. There
should be enough instability for Friday late morning into the
afternoon that a few storms will be possible, and there is a
`Marginal Risk` area for isolated severe storms over the Finger
Lakes area as the trough tracks through this area.
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/…
A mid-level low will be anchored in place over James Bay through the
weekend, with a broad synoptic trough over the northeastern CONUS
and high pressure over the southeast. A few rounds of shortwave
energy rounding the base of the main trough with associated frontal
boundaries dropping southward out of Canada will maintain active
weather for the weekend, and into the first half of Monday.
Expecting the highest chances for more widespread showers/tstorms to
be Saturday night into early Monday morning as a more well-defined
cold front crosses the region. Confidence remains low in the details
as long range guidance solutions continue to show discrepancies
among one another, as well as run-to-run inconsistencies in the
strength and timing of these features.
As the mid-level low ejects across Quebec Province Monday, weak
ridging will build across the Great Lakes and bring decreasing
chances for wet weather through Tuesday.
Temperatures will initially be above normal Saturday and Sunday,
with mid and upper 80s for daytime highs on Saturday. Temperatures
moderate back to near seasonable daytime readings in the upper 70s
and low 80s for Monday and Tuesday.
.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/…
VFR conditions will continue today. Ridging and warm temperatures
aloft will likely cap the area from convection through the day
today, although some isolated higher terrain convection will be
possible later this afternoon.
A cold front and potent mid level trough will arrive early tonight.
A broken band of showers and thunderstorms is expected to move
across the region from west to east in the general 02z-09z time
frame. Brief flight restrictions are likely as this area moves
through. Some gusty thunderstorms are possible across far western
New York this evening possibly impacting KIAG, KBUF and KJHW.
Thursday…VFR/MVFR with a chance of showers and thunderstorms,
especially east of Lake Ontario.
Friday and Saturday…Mainly VFR with a small chance of a shower
Sunday…Areas of MVFR with a chance of showers and thunderstorms.
A southwest flow will persist today ahead of a cold front. Strong
thunderstorms are possible with the frontal passage this evening
on Lake Erie.
Southwest winds pick up behind the frontal passage late tonight
and Thursday with possible small craft headlines, especially on
NY…Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT this evening
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