Nelliston NY USA Weather Tomorrow and Today 2.28.2022 and 2.27.2022, temp currently is Mostly Cloudy
More on current conditions
S 13 mph
29.98 in (1015.5 mb)
Wind Chill17°F (-8°C)
27 Feb 8:51 am EST
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7 Day Nelliston NY USA Weather Tomorrow and Today 2.28.2022 and 2.27.2022
Slight ChanceSnow ShowersthenRain/SnowLikely andBreezyHigh: 35 °F
Chance SnowShowers andBreezy thenMostly ClearLow: 5 °F
SunnyHigh: 18 °F
Mostly CloudyLow: 3 °F
Slight ChanceSnow Showersthen ChanceRain/SnowHigh: 38 °F
Chance SnowShowersLow: 22 °F
Mostly Sunnythen ChanceSnow ShowersHigh: 34 °F
Chance SnowShowersLow: 19 °F
Partly SunnyHigh: 29 °F
We hope you like this weather data for Nelliston NY USA Weather Tomorrow and Today 2.28.2022 and 2.27.2022. Also for the rest of the week, too!
TodayA chance of snow showers before 2pm, then rain and snow showers likely between 2pm and 4pm, then snow showers likely after 4pm. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 35. Breezy, with a west wind 15 to 21 mph, with gusts as high as 41 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. Total daytime snow accumulation of less than a half inch possible. TonightA chance of snow showers, mainly before 8pm. Mostly cloudy, then gradually becoming mostly clear, with a low around 5. Wind chill values as low as -7. Breezy, with a northwest wind 10 to 20 mph, with gusts as high as 39 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%. New snow accumulation of less than a half inch possible. MondaySunny, with a high near 18. Wind chill values as low as -9. West wind 9 to 13 mph. Monday NightMostly cloudy, with a low around 3. West wind around 6 mph becoming calm in the evening. TuesdayA slight chance of snow showers before 1pm, then a chance of rain and snow showers. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 38. Southeast wind 5 to 8 mph becoming southwest in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation is 40%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible. Tuesday NightA chance of snow showers, mainly before 1am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 22. Chance of precipitation is 40%.WednesdayA chance of snow showers after 1pm. Partly sunny, with a high near 34. Chance of precipitation is 30%.Wednesday NightA chance of snow showers before 1am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 19. Chance of precipitation is 40%.ThursdayPartly sunny, with a high near 29.Thursday NightPartly cloudy, with a low around 6.FridayMostly sunny, with a high near 30.Friday NightMostly cloudy, with a low around 14.SaturdayA chance of rain and snow showers. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 40. Chance of precipitation is 40%.
Here’s a detailed discussion below that you might like for Nelliston NY USA Weather Tomorrow and Today 2.28.2022 and 2.27.2022.
Area Forecast Discussion Issued by NWS Albany, NYHome | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary OffVersions: 1
FXUS61 KALY 271424
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
924 AM EST Sun Feb 27 2022
An area of lake effect snow in the southern
Adirondacks will persist through early afternoon with partly to
mainly sunny skies in place further south. Breezy winds will allow
temperatures to climb into the 30s to even 40s before a cold front
pushes southward through the region this afternoon resulting in snow
showers and even some snow squalls. A secondary arctic cold front
tonight will usher in much colder air and maintain breezy winds.
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/…
Winter Weather Advisory remains in affect until 7 PM today for
northern Herkimer County for the area mainly along and north of
Wind Chill Advisory 1AM to 10AM tomorrow for northern Herkimer
and Hamilton County…
Snow showers extending into northern Herkimer and Hamilton
Counties and that will continue through much of the day. A few
flurries into the western and central Mohawk Valley. The Arctic
cold front is still approaching and additional snow showers and
isolated snow squalls are expected this afternoon. Just minor
adjustments to temperatures, sky cover and snow chances.
GOES16 IR satellite imagery shows our positively tilted trough
in Ontario/Quebec Canada pushing southward with two distinct
boundaries progressing towards the International border. Low-
level flow downstream of Lake Ontario (as seen on the TYX vad
wind profile) shifted southwesterly overnight in response to the
approaching trough and thus generated an area of lake effect
snow. The rather disorganized area of snow is tracking into the
Tug Hill, North Country and is clipping areas north of Route 28
in northern Herkimer County. Otherwise, deep westerly flow
through the column continues advecting lake enhanced stratus
clouds into areas mainly along and north of I-90. These clouds
prevented temperatures from cooling too much overnight and these
areas are starting their Sunday morning in the low to mid 20s
which is much milder compared to last night when most were in
the low single digits or even below 0. To the south, the stratus
clouds were much more scattered and therefore favorable
radiational cooling conditions overnight allowed temperatures to
drop into the teens and 20s with even some single digits in
Litchfield County and the southern Taconics which stayed clear
As low-level flow downstream of Lake Ontario becomes more
westerly, the lake effect snow will overspread more of Herkimer
and spill into Hamilton County this morning. Guidance is in good
agreement that lake effect snow persist through early
afternoon and considering the favorable fetch off the lake
along with a favorable temperature profile to yield high snow
ratios (15 – 18:1), these areas should see 2 – 5 inches of snow
with the highest amounts in Herkimer County.
While the lake effect will likely stay west of the Hudson,
stratus clouds should extend into the Upper Hudson Valley, Lake
George/Saratoga region and southern VT, keeping skies mainly
cloudy today. Areas near and south of I-90 will likely be out
of reach for any lake enhanced clouds and strong westerly winds
downsloping off the Catskill should help maintain mainly sunny
skies. In fact, the combination of insolation, downsloping and
deep boundary layer mixing up to 850 – 700hPa today should
promote mild temperatures. We therefore leaned on the warmer end
of guidance for temperatures today and depending on how deep
mixing becomes, our forecast may still be a few degree below
actually highs. Depending on the cloud coverage, high
temperatures even as far north as Albany could reach into the
upper 30s to near 40. However, where clouds persist most of the
day should only climb into the low to mid 30s. Otherwise, it
will become quite breezy today, especially down the Mohawk
Valley into the Capital District and Berkshires with sustained
westerly winds 10 – 20mph and gusts up to 25 – 35mph.
The first of the two aforementioned cold fronts progresses into
the southern Adirondacks, Upper Hudson Valley and southern VT by
21 UTC this afternoon (which should help disrupt the lake
effect snow) before pushing southward towards I-90 by 00 UTC
and eventually reaching into the mid-Hudson Valley and
Litchfield Hills by 03 UTC. Sufficient low level buoyancy
immediately ahead of the front along with a thermal gradient and
some sfc convergence could generate snow showers or even broken
snow squall segments. However, the strong synoptic flow ahead
of this initial cold front should prevent a coherent/organized
snow squall. In addition, the fact that this boundary arrives
mainly after peak heating with daytime temperatures climbing
into the mid to upper 30s to potentially low 40s also reduces
the potential that any snow squalls will result in the type of
impacts we observed last weekend. Regardless, enough favorable
snow squall parameters are in place that we will maintain a
watchful eye for any strong snow showers or broken snow squalls
mainly after 3PM today. Mild temperatures to start plus brief
nature of any snow showers/squalls will limit total
accumulations to mainly just coatings to less than 0.5″.
Westerly sfc winds also shift to the northwest behind this
initial front with gusts spiking to 30 – 45kts due to some
pressure rises behind the boundary.
The true arctic cold front then finally pushes southward through
the region by 03 to 09 UTC tonight resulting in yet another
winds shift, this time to the north-northwest with sustained
winds peaking again immediately behind the boundary due to
pressure rises. The better moisture and forcing along this
secondary front looks to stay in the Upper Hudson Valley,
southern Adirondacks and southern VT so higher confidence that
any snow squalls will mainly impact these areas before
weakening as the arctic front tracks through I-90.
Winds remain breezy overnight sustained 8 to 18kts with
occasional gusts to 20-25kts so despite clearing skies and
prominent cold air advection, boundary layer mixing should
prevent temperatures from bottoming. Even still, expecting lows
to fall into the single digits and low teens with even sub- zero
single digit values in the southern Adirondacks and higher
terrain of southern VT. The combination of breezy north-
northwest winds and chilly temperatures raises concerns for
dangerous wind chills in northern Herkimer and Hamilton County
so we collaborated with WFO BTV/BUF and issued a wind chill
advisory from 1AM to 10AM Monday. Wind chills could drop as low
as -20 to -25F.
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/…
Wind Chill Advisory until 10AM Monday for northern Herkimer and
A 1030hPa Canadian high builds into the Northeast on Monday with
the pressure gradient overhead gradually weakening through the
day. With 850hPa isotherms falling to -12C to -15C, expecting a
chilly start to the work week and final day of February with
high temperatures likely only reaching into the upper teens to
low- mid 20s. Add in the continued slightly breezy northwest
winds and it will feel even chiller. Otherwise, skies will
actually be sunny thanks to subsidence building overhead so the
sunshine should help abate some of the cold temperatures.
First half of Monday night will turn quite cold as clear skies, calm
winds and a sufficiently deep snow pack favor radiational
cooling with lows rapidly dropping into the teens and single
digits. However, an approaching warm front will usher in high
level clouds after 06 UTC with mid-level clouds increasing
towards the pre-dawn hours. Initial clouds should be too thin to
mitigate radiational cooling but thicker clouds arriving late
should cut down the rate of cooling as will surface winds
becoming a bit breezy. Sufficient warm air advection and
moisture could result in some light snow or flurries for the
western Mohawk Valley and southern Adirondacks before sunrise so
included slight chance POPs there.
Stronger isentropic lift and moisture overspread areas mainly
north of I-90 Tues morning into especially the afternoon which
could result in a period of snow. Deterministic guidance
indicates that areas south of I-90 could be displaced too far
south of the best moisture/WAA and therefore end up in the
associated warm sector. In fact, southerly boundary layer winds
become quite breezy during the day (esp up the Hudson River Valley)
Tuesday which should promote mild temperatures rising well into
the 30s to possibly low 40s in the mid-Hudson Valley/NW CT.
However, there is good consensus that as the system`s
associated cold front pushes through the region late Tues P.M
into the evening, some isolated to scattered rain/snow to snow
showers is possible. However, moisture is lacking so guidance is
not sold that this will result in appreciable precipitation.
Winds shift to the northwest behind the cold front Tuesday night
and remain breezy with some lake effect snow showers
potentially clipping parts of the western Mohawk Valley or
northern Catskills. Otherwise, lake enhanced clouds and breezy
winds overnight should prevent lows from turning too chilly
with temperatures only progged to drop into the low to mid 20s.
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/…
A mean upper level trough with a NW flow regime is expected to
persist across the Great Lakes and Northeast through much of the
long term period.
The period starts out on Wednesday with a weak area of high pressure
building in from the west. Temperatures will be slightly below
normal. However, the next upper level disturbance will already be
approaching from the Great Lakes by late in the day. This
disturbance, and its associated Arctic cold front, will move across
the area Wednesday night. This system will bring at least scattered
snow showers to much of the area along with a reinforcing push of
colder air. Temperatures will be below normal Wednesday night into
Thursday, with drying conditions after the front/disturbance move
through on Thursday. However, it will be breezy as well with a
strong pressure gradient forecast to be over the region making it
feel quite cold.
Arctic high pressure (near 1040 mb) will then build SE from the
upper Great Lakes Thursday night into Friday, providing yet another
surge of frigid air (850 mb temperature anomalies -1 to -2 STDEV).
Temperatures look to be even colder than the previous few days
through Friday, as the high builds overhead.
Latest trends in the 00Z guidance (GFS/ECMWF/CMC) indicate this
strong area of high pressure may become anchored across our region
into Saturday. However, NBM still indicating low chance PoPs by late
in the day. The PoPs are trending lower than yesterday. Will leave
in low probability of a few rain/snow showers for now, however warm
advection from the next system approaching from the south/west may
not arrive until Saturday night into Sunday. If this trend
continues, Saturday may end up being dry with moderating
.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/…
Satellite imagery showing mid level clouds extending from KGFL
to KALB and just north of KPSF, with clear skies at KPOU. Cigs
are at VFR levels mainly between 4000-5000 ft AGL. These clouds
will gradually shift southward through the day.
The main concern today is the potential for scattered snow
squalls associated with an Arctic cold front passage later this
afternoon into the evening. Snow squalls are expected to track
NW to SE across the area from around 21Z today to 04Z Monday
affecting the KGFL/KALB/KPSF TAF sites. Due to expected
scattered coverage of the snow squalls, will continue to mention
PROB30 for a period of possible LIFR vsby associated with any
snow squalls. Squalls should dissipate prior to reaching KPOU.
Winds will initially be southwest around 5-10 kt, becoming
westerly and increasing to 12-16 kt with gusts of 20-30 kt
developing this afternoon.
Monday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA…SHSN.
Tuesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHSN.
Wednesday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA…SHSN.
Wednesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHSN.
Thursday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Friday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Seasonable temperatures persist through early next week and
without any major precipitation events, we do not anticipate
any ice jam concerns through at least the middle of next week.
For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed
and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the
Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our
NY…Winter Weather Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for NYZ032.
Wind Chill Advisory from 1 AM to 10 AM EST Monday for NYZ032-
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