Erin NY USA Weather Tomorrow and Today 7.21.2022 and 7.20.2022, temp currently is Fair
More on current conditions
Vrbl 3 mph
29.83 in (1009.3 mb)
Heat Index82°F (28°C)
20 Jul 8:53 am EDT
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7 Day Erin NY USA Weather Tomorrow and Today 7.21.2022 and 7.20.2022
Heat Advisory July 20, 11:00am until July 20, 08:00pmClick here for hazard details and duration
SunnyHigh: 91 °F
Mostly Clearthen ChanceShowersLow: 70 °F
ChanceT-stormsHigh: 87 °F
Mostly ClearLow: 64 °F
Sunny thenChanceT-stormsHigh: 88 °F
ChanceT-storms thenMostly ClearLow: 63 °F
Mostly SunnyHigh: 91 °F
Mostly Cloudythen ChanceShowersLow: 66 °F
ChanceShowers thenChanceT-stormsHigh: 88 °F
We hope you like this weather data for Erin NY USA Weather Tomorrow and Today 7.21.2022 and 7.20.2022. Also for the rest of the week, too!
TodaySunny, with a high near 91. Light southwest wind increasing to 5 to 9 mph in the morning. TonightA chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly between 4am and 5am. Partly cloudy, with a low around 70. South wind around 8 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%. New rainfall amounts of less than a tenth of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms. ThursdayA chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly sunny, with a high near 87. Southwest wind 7 to 11 mph, with gusts as high as 24 mph. Chance of precipitation is 40%. New rainfall amounts of less than a tenth of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms. Thursday NightMostly clear, with a low around 64. West wind 5 to 8 mph becoming calm after midnight. Winds could gust as high as 20 mph. FridayA chance of showers and thunderstorms after 2pm. Sunny, with a high near 88. West wind 5 to 8 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%.Friday NightA chance of showers and thunderstorms before 8pm. Mostly clear, with a low around 63. Chance of precipitation is 30%.SaturdayMostly sunny, with a high near 91.Saturday NightA chance of showers after 2am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 66. Chance of precipitation is 30%.SundayA chance of showers, with thunderstorms also possible after 2pm. Partly sunny, with a high near 88. Chance of precipitation is 50%.Sunday NightA chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 63. Chance of precipitation is 50%.MondayA chance of showers. Mostly sunny, with a high near 81. Chance of precipitation is 30%.Monday NightPartly cloudy, with a low around 58.TuesdaySunny, with a high near 82.
Here’s a detailed discussion below that you might like for Erin NY USA Weather Tomorrow and Today 7.21.2022 and 7.20.2022.
Area Forecast Discussion Issued by NWS Binghamton, NYHome | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary OffVersions: 1
FXUS61 KBGM 201242
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
842 AM EDT Wed Jul 20 2022
It will be hot and humid today with heat indexes rising into
the low and mid 90s. Showers and thunderstorms will move in
from the west late tonight into Thursday. Drier weather returns
Friday, with warm weather continuing into the weekend.
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/…
830 am update…
Temperatures rising faster than forecast so updated the hourly
grids. The high temperatures and dewpoints look good today into
tonight. Probably will stay dry today with no trigger. A few
spotty showers possibly over the terrain but shouldn`t last in
any one location.
640 AM Update…
No change to the previous forecast.
345 AM Update…
Today will be a hot one out there with string upper level
ridging and mostly sunny skies. An area of low pressure
deepening and moving just S of the Hudson Bay will really help
strengthen the low level jet with strong WAA increasing 850 mb
temperatures up to near 20C this afternoon. This helps support
widespread highs in the 90s. There is still some uncertainty
with the dew points given how deep the mixing layer will get
tomorrow afternoon. There is some dry air aloft just above the
boundary layer so the warmer it gets, the deeper the mixing
later is, and this the lower the surface dew points will be.
With the dry soils, there will not be as much evapotranspiration
and latent heating like what is being depicted in the NAM and
NAM nest so the NBM dew points were used and blended with the
HRRR. Though given the high temperatures either way heat indexes
this afternoon will get into the mid to upper 90s, especially
in the deeper river valleys as well as urbanized areas. With not
much CIN by the mid afternoon, a couple thunderstorms could
develop, likely in higher elevated areas with terrain that could
initiate the convection like the Catskills and Poconos.
A cold front approaches tonight bringing a threat of showers
and thunderstorms overnight into Thursday. Most of the available
energy will have dissipated with radiative cooling but slightly
steeper mid level lapse rates and a couple hundred joules of
elevated CAPE could mean a few overnight thunderstorms in CNY
and NEPA. With stable air near the surface and not much CAPE
through the hail growth region the severe threat is very low
overnight and the coverage of the storms will be spotty.
Thursday could be more interesting if the front can slow down
some and allow instability yo build in NEPA up into the
Catskills ahead of the front but as of now, the front is through
our region by late morning. Some of the 0Z CAMs have slowed the
front by a few hours allowing the far eastern and southeastern
portions of our CWA to build up 1500 to 2000 J/kg of SBCAPE with
30-35 knots of shear. Given the trend there is a little sliver
of a slight risk from the Day 2 SPC Outlook for far eastern
Otsego, Delaware, and Sullivan counties.
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/…
345 AM Update…
Skies clear behind the front Thursday night with weak CAA
aloft. Some patchy fog likely develops especially for areas that
sees meaningful precipitation Thursday. Ridging already begins
to build back in Friday with recovery of surface temperatures
and dew points by the afternoon. The 0z models have trended
towards a shortwave moving through Friday afternoon into the
early evening that could spark off a few thunderstorms. With
ensemble means of SBCAPE of 1000 to 1500 and forecast shear to
be around 30 to 40 knots it will be something to watch for a few
isolated severe storms.
Zonal flow and weak CAA returns Friday night behind the
shortwave with chances of precipitation dropping off shortly
after sunset. Overnight lows still stay above average given the
higher dew points that will remain.
A strengthening 250 mb jet over the upper Midwest on Saturday
as a low occludes over the Hudson Bay will help build a ridge
over the eastern US. The GFS and ECMWF both depict a warm but
dry surge of air from 850 to 700 mb. Another hot day with highs
in the upper 80s and low 90s once again. Though with the dry air
in the mid levels, deep day time mixing could drop dew points
into the lower 60s in the afternoon and that will likely keep
the heat index below advisory criteria.
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/…
345 AM Update…
The long term is looking a little more active with a better
chance of being on the edge of the large ridge that has and will
be continuing in the central plains. Sunday begins with a
trough digging into New England with a strong zonal jet max just
north of the region. Temperatures aloft stay well above average
with 850 temps at or slightly above 20C. Max temperatures have
a great deal of spread in the Ensembles due to possible day time
convection and clouds. If Sunday can stay sunny with the storms
holding off until the afternoon, it has the potential to be the
hottest day of the week with highs reaching into the mid and
upper 90s with dew points in the upper 60s and low 70s. Trends
in deterministic and ensemble guidance has been towards more sun
and stronger ridging so this will need to be watched for high
heat indexes once again. Once that surface trough moves through
sometime wither late weekend or early next week, showers and
thunderstorms accompanying the trough passage could bring some
widespread beneficial rain. Ensemble means are already
approaching half an inch to an inch across CNY into the Northern
Tier of PA. A drier pattern returns for the middle and late
next week. Looking at 500 mb height anomalies, there is a lot of
spread depending on if the large ridge over the central US can
push a little farther east. GEFS and EPS ensembles have 15 to 20
degree spreads for almost every day beyond Monday.
.AVIATION /13Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/…
Not many changes from the 6z update. Some patches of fog caused
brief restrictions at RME after the rain cleared. Satellite
shows that the fog is burning off quick after sunrise so
restrictions were not kept to the 12z update. A cold front
moving in late tonight after 6z will bring some isolated to
scattered showers and thunderstorms. Confidence is low in the
timing and locations of the storms but all the CNY terminals but
BGM had vicinity showers or showers added.
Thursday…Showers and storms becoming likely with associated
Saturday…Mainly VFR; slight chance for afternoon showers and
Sunday…Possible restrictions in showers and thunderstorms.
NY…Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for NYZ009-015>018-
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