Ellenburg NY USA Weather Tomorrow and Today

Ellenburg NY USA Weather Tomorrow and Today 7.21.2022 and 7.20.2022, temp currently is A Few Clouds
80°F
27°C

More on current conditions

A Few Clouds
80°F
27°C

Humidity
71%

Wind Speed
Vrbl 3 mph

Barometer
29.72 in (1006.1 mb)

Dewpoint
70°F (21°C)

Visibility
10.00 mi

Heat Index83°F (28°C)
Last update

20 Jul 8:53 am EDT

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7 Day Ellenburg NY USA Weather Tomorrow and Today 7.21.2022 and 7.20.2022

Today
Mostly SunnyHigh: 87 °F

Tonight
Partly Cloudythen SlightChanceShowersLow: 68 °F

Thursday
ChanceT-storms thenShowersLikelyHigh: 83 °F

ThursdayNight
ChanceShowers thenPartly CloudyLow: 64 °F

Friday
SunnyHigh: 83 °F

FridayNight
Mostly ClearLow: 65 °F

Saturday
Mostly SunnyHigh: 83 °F

SaturdayNight
ChanceShowers andBreezyLow: 67 °F

Sunday
Breezy.ChanceShowers thenT-stormsLikelyHigh: 80 °F

We hope you like this weather data for Ellenburg NY USA Weather Tomorrow and Today 7.21.2022 and 7.20.2022. Also for the rest of the week, too!

Detailed Forecast

TodayMostly sunny, with a high near 87. Heat index values as high as 91. Calm wind. TonightA 20 percent chance of showers after 3am. Partly cloudy, with a low around 68. South wind around 7 mph. ThursdayA chance of showers before 11am, then a chance of showers and thunderstorms between 11am and noon, then showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm after noon. Some of the storms could produce small hail and gusty winds. Partly sunny, with a high near 83. Southwest wind 11 to 13 mph, with gusts as high as 24 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New rainfall amounts of less than a tenth of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms. Thursday NightA 30 percent chance of showers before 8pm. Partly cloudy, with a low around 64. West wind 10 to 13 mph. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible. FridaySunny, with a high near 83. West wind 10 to 13 mph. Friday NightMostly clear, with a low around 65. Southwest wind 8 to 10 mph. SaturdayMostly sunny, with a high near 83. South wind around 9 mph. Saturday NightA 40 percent chance of showers after 8pm. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 67. Breezy, with a south wind 9 to 14 mph increasing to 15 to 20 mph after midnight. SundayA chance of showers, then showers and thunderstorms likely after 2pm. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 80. Breezy, with a southwest wind 15 to 20 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%.Sunday NightShowers and thunderstorms likely before 2am, then a chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 60. West wind 5 to 13 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%.MondayMostly sunny, with a high near 75. West wind 13 to 16 mph. Monday NightPartly cloudy, with a low around 56. West wind 6 to 11 mph. TuesdayMostly sunny, with a high near 75. West wind 10 to 14 mph.

Here’s a detailed discussion below that you might like for Ellenburg NY USA Weather Tomorrow and Today 7.21.2022 and 7.20.2022.

Area Forecast Discussion Issued by NWS Burlington, VTHome | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary OffVersions: 1
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000
FXUS61 KBTV 201143
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
743 AM EDT Wed Jul 20 2022

.SYNOPSIS…
A Heat Advisory is in effect for the Champlain and Saint Lawrence
valleys from noon to 8 pm today with heat index values in the low to
mid 90s this afternoon. As heat builds late in the afternoon, some
isolated thunderstorms may form over the Adirondacks and track
eastward. Widespread showers and potentially severe thunderstorms
will be possible Thursday as a strong frontal system pushes through
the region. More chances of showers and thunderstorms are expected
over the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/…

* Heat Advisory in effect today for the Champlain and Saint
Lawrence valleys.

* Potential for severe thunderstorms on Thursday, especially for
Vermont.

As of 730 AM EDT Wednesday…Main change was to make some
adjustments to precipitation chances across northern Vermont
this afternoon to account for a disturbance that will be moving
over the top of the ridge. An area of thunderstorms west of
Massena will decay as it moves into the ridge but may become the
focal point for some afternoon convection. CAMs track this
feature north of the Champlain Valley dropping it through
north-central Vermont this afternoon. Only mentioned slight
chance since variance amongst CAMs in placement and timing is
large. Otherwise, the forecast remains intact and is on track.

Previous Discussion…Heat: Weak ridging crests today as the
day starts with warm low temperatures and elevated dew points.
Temperatures will quickly rise today after sunrise with model
guidance favoring afternoon highs in the upper 80s to low 90s.
Given dew points in the upper 60s and low 70s, heat indices will
generally be in the low to upper 90s across the North Country.
Additionally, lighter surface winds will allow for WBGTs to
climb well into uncomfortable ranges of the upper 80s to almost
90. This means biophysical cooling mechanisms will be less
effective increasing risk for heat illness especially in the
Champlain and Saint Lawrence valleys. The lower Connecticut
River Valley will approach thresholds, but will be more
conditional on cloud cover. Speaking of clouds, the shallow
amplitude ridge is allowing more mid/high clouds to spill across
this morning. This could be a bit of a foil for maximum
temperatures. However, any breaks in clouds will promote rapid
warming and aforementioned uncomfortable conditions. Cloud cover
and rain will provide some relief for Thursday, but not before
apparent temperatures climb back into the low/briefly mid 90s
for main valleys. Those outdoors should exercise caution today
and tomorrow given the expected temperature conditions; this
heat is potentially dangerous.

Thunderstorms: Areal coverage of slight chances for thunderstorms
was increased this afternoon with terrain acting as elevated heat
sources as the heat dome builds CAPE 500-2000J/kg. Some isolated
cells may form along higher terrain of the Adirondacks and/or lake
breeze. Shear is more limited today, so stronger cells aren`t
necessarily expected, but a rare one could occur if boundary
interactions occur.

Higher concerns for more widespread and stronger thunderstorm
activity continues to be the focus for Thursday. A potent low
pressure will push a frontal boundary through the region with
stronger than usual supporting dynamics for this time of year. 30-
50kt mid level flow will increase bulk shear values into the 30-40kt
range allowing for tilted and sustained updrafts. Cells will likely
initiate late Thursday morning across northern New York before
moving into Vermont during peak heating hours. As cells move into
1000-2500J/kg CAPE environment, rapid growth and
multicellular/supercell structures will be possible. 0-1km SRH
values of 100-200m2/s2 are supportive of rotating columns with some
potential for tornadoes. Other threats will be gusty winds and some
hail. As storms evolve, it`s likely that bows will form with
increasing threat for gusty winds later in the afternoon.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/…
As of 410 AM EDT Wednesday…Thunderstorm activity will wane from
west to east Thursday night in the wake of the cold front. However,
before coming to an end, lingering potential for rain and
thunderstorms will exist Thursday night east of the Green Mountains
in Vermont. Increasing westerly flow aloft will usher in a drier
airmass overnight proving a mostly dry day for Friday. Overnight
lows will be in the 60s with daytime highs on Friday in the 80s.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/…
As of 410 AM EDT Wednesday…As we head into the weekend,
temperatures will increase aloft as we enter into a regime of
southwest flow and warm air advection. For such reasons, there
exists a slight chance of terrain driven showers and thunderstorms
on Saturday afternoon despite the lack of forcing. Highs are
expected in the 80s to near 90. Temperatures will remain mild
overnight Saturday into Sunday with development of low-level
southwest jet; lows will be in the mid 60s to near 70. A vertically
stacked low pressure system will slowly arrive late Sunday, bringing
increasing chances for heavy rain and thunderstorms from west to
east. This will produce a significant temperature gradient across
the forecast area with highs across northern New York in the upper
70s to low 80s while reaching into the upper 80s to low 90s across
southeastern Vermont. The main frontal boundary associated with this
system looks to arrive Sunday evening; at which time, there exists
the potential for strong thunderstorms as the GFS indicates plenty
of moisture (PWATS up to 2 inches) and instability (CAPE in excess
of 1000 J/kg) paired with the presence of a low-level jet and thus
low-level wind shear. Stay tuned for more information.

As this system departs on Monday, a relatively cooler and drier
pattern will take hold for early/mid week. During this time, upper
level ridging is expected across the Northeast with northwest aloft.
High temperatures Monday through Wednesday will be in the mid 70s to
mid 80s with overnight lows in the 50s.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/…
Through 12Z Thursday…Dense 100-150 broke overnight into a SCT
deck allowing for some morning fog at SLK and mist at MPV/EFK.
Satellite shows the valley mist beginning to dissipate with
sunrise. IFR conditions at SLK should become VFR by in the
12-13Z hour. Otherwise, all other terminals are VFR. Main change
was to increase areal coverage of slight chances of afternoon TS
across north-central and central Vermont as a decaying complex
moves through. Models show that this may become the focal point
for some afternoon convection. As such, chances for TS increase
again 17-22Z but will likely be more limited to initiation
points mainly along terrain and the aforementioned disturbance.
Terminal chances will be 10-15% mainly for locations adjacent
to the Adirondacks and the Green Mtns. BTV should remain TS-
free, but a rare cell remains possible. CIGs remain VFR
overnight, but will be lowering at MSS and SLK with VCSH after
09Z heralding the approach of a stronger system that will impact
the region on Thursday bringing widespread chances of
thunderstorms, some of which may be severe. Also, LLWS will
likely be increasing just outside the forecast period as winds
aloft increase.

Outlook…

Wednesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA, Chance TSRA.
Thursday: VFR. Likely SHRA, Chance TSRA.
Thursday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Friday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.
Friday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.
Saturday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES…
VT…Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM EDT this evening for
VTZ001-002-005-009-011.
NY…Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM EDT this evening for
NYZ026>028-035-087.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS…Boyd
NEAR TERM…Boyd
SHORT TERM…Hammond
LONG TERM…Hammond
AVIATION…Boyd

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